Sofia, Sep 16
The recent diplomatic engagement between India and China is hardly a reset as there are a number of strategic, security, and economic challenges that complicate the diplomatic thaw and bilateral ties, a report stated on Tuesday. As India and China engage in diplomatic activities, caution and realism must guide the next phase of efforts to add momentum to warming ties, it mentioned.

The resumption of diplomatic engagement between India and China has led to agreements on key aspects of the bilateral relationship: disengagement at the border and discussions on the possibility of reviving economic linkages and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), according to a report in Modern Diplomacy. These developments are suggestive of a thaw in bilateral ties that were strained since the Galwan clashes in 2020.

India and China have worked to restore diplomatic relations by leveraging cooperation in the domain of people-to-people ties, hydrological data sharing, and cross-border connectivity since the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of BRICS Summit in Kazan in October, last year.

Relations between two nations have normalised on the back of people-to-people ties as India resumed issuing tourist visas for Chinese nationals for the first time in five years. In March, China lifted visa restrictions on Indian nationals after both nations announced that they would resume direct air travel. These decisions allow greater people-to-people interactions in the domain of tourism and academic and cultural exchanges.

"The recent diplomatic reengagement between India and China is hardly a reset. There are several pressing strategic, security, and economic challenges that complicate the diplomatic thaw and broader bilateral relations. Tensions at the border could flare with any misstep from either side, and disengagement would be replaced with escalation. Similarly, on the trade front, India’s import dependence on Chinese goods is an economic vulnerability that Beijing could exploit in the event of any new confrontation. The same applies to hydrological data sharing, which became a casualty of the Doklam standoff. At the same time, reintroducing Chinese FDI and economic linkages carries national security risks with it that will have to be carefully scrutinized," wrote Rahul Karan Reddy and Tridivesh Singh Maini in Modern Diplomacy.

"Beyond existing challenges, there are emerging ones that threaten to complicate relations further. The Dalai Lama’s succession issue is already shaping into a thorny one, and China’s Medong County dam is a troubling development with significant downstream implications for Indian states in the Northeast. Even para-diplomacy efforts are embedded with concerns about China’s influence operations and data security," the report added.

Therefore, it emphasised, it is crucial to view progress on non-confrontational issues like people-to-people ties and para-diplomacy efforts as a small, but meaningful, step in the direction of restoring trust and balance.

Further improvements must be pursued, keeping in mind the core interests and concerns of both sides, the writers asserted.

"With the door for para-diplomacy held ajar by the progress made so far between India and China, caution and realism must guide the next phase of efforts to add momentum to warming ties," it concluded.

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Realism and caution must be adopted in efforts to add momentum to warming India-China ties: Report