Rome, April 29
On May 7, with the solemn pronouncement of extra omnes — "everyone else out" — the doors of the Sistine Chapel will close as they have for the election of each Pope since 1492, and the Conclave will begin to elect the new Bishop of Rome. The death of Pope Francis brings to a close one of the most transformative — and at times polarizing — eras in modern Church history. Now, the eyes of the world turn to the Vatican, where one of the most global and diverse assemblies of cardinals ever gathered will undertake the weighty task of choosing the next Pope.

As conservative Cardinal Gerhard Muller recently declared, "We are meeting to elect the successor of St. Peter, not of Pope Francis", it is a pointed reminder that the cardinals are not tasked with continuing any particular papal agenda, but with safeguarding the enduring mission of a Church that has stood for more than two millennia. At this crossroads, the decision they make will not only shape the future of Catholicism but will also influence the broader moral and political landscape of a deeply fractured world.

The upcoming Conclave, following the rules set forth in the 1996 apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis — a framework largely crafted by Pope John Paul II and lightly modified by Benedict XVI — will be the arena in which these critical choices unfold. In an age marked by war in Europe and the Middle East, growing violence against Christians across Africa and Asia, and a Church struggling with financial instability, the next Pope will inherit challenges far more acute than those faced by his predecessor.

Demographically, the center of gravity in Catholicism has already shifted. As Vatican expert Professor Francesco Sisci notes, Africa today boasts the most dynamic Catholic growth, with conversions happening at twice the pace of its population increase. Asia, too, represents a frontier of vitality, with growing Catholic communities in China and resilient minorities in places like Myanmar and South Korea.

Pope Francis, acutely aware of these shifts, reshaped the College of Cardinals to reflect a new global Church. Under his leadership, cardinals from Mongolia, Laos, and the Central African Republic joined the traditionally European-dominated body. In the coming Conclave, of the 133 cardinal - electors, 108 were appointed by Francis, 22 by Benedict XVI, and only five by John Paul II. Europe still claims the largest share, with 53 electors, including 17 Italians. The Americas follow with 37 cardinals split among North, Central, and South America. Asia will have 23 representatives, Africa 18, and Oceania 4.

Yet, Francis's efforts at globalization have not been without controversy. For the first time in nearly a century, historic European Sees such as Milan, Venice, and Paris are without cardinal - electors. Austria, home to nearly five million Catholics, has no voting representative, while Mongolia — where only 1,500 Catholics reside — does. Some see this as a necessary recalibration; others as an erosion of Europe's historic leadership within the Church.

Adding to the complexity, while 117 cardinals over the age of 80 are barred from voting, they still exert significant influence during pre-Conclave discussions. Their counsel could sway the electorate, especially if the Conclave seeks a short but steady papacy led by an elder cardinal. Two voting cardinals are expected to miss the Conclave due to ill health, leaving the actual number of voters at 133.

Among the likely papabili — the "Pope-ables" — strong candidates are emerging from Africa and Asia. Cardinals Peter Turkson of Ghana and Robert Sarah of Guinea symbolise Africa's growing spiritual and political weight within Catholicism. From Asia, Cardinals Lazzaro You Heung-sik of South Korea, Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar, and Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka offer voices shaped by regions where Catholicism often survives under hardship and persecution.

As Sisci observes, African cardinals often present a compelling balance: deeply conservative on doctrinal and moral issues but progressive on matters of social justice. It is a combination that mirrors the Church's urgent dual mission—remaining true to its teachings while speaking meaningfully to a fractured, polarized world.

Africa's experience of martyrdom lends its leaders a unique moral authority. In a geopolitical sense, too, Africa is a critical theatre, where China, Russia, Turkey, and Western powers are locked in an ongoing competition for influence. The Church's voice on that continent could carry weight far beyond the pulpit.

Meanwhile, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often seen as the "Asian Francis", remains a favourite among more progressive circles. However, his Jesuit background, mirroring that of Francis, could complicate his path to the papacy, given the tension between continuity and the desire for change.

At the heart of the Conclave lies a deeper struggle: between the rapidly growing churches of the Global South and the traditional financial centres of Catholicism. Though numbers swell in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the bulk of Church funding still comes from the United States, Germany, and Italy. As the Vatican grapples with financial uncertainty exacerbated during Francis's papacy, these nations' cardinals may wield disproportionate influence behind closed doors.

The stakes could hardly be higher. The cardinals must not only navigate ideological currents within Catholicism but also reckon with a geopolitical landscape roiled by war, extremism, and an erosion of moral authority. The days of mourning for Pope Francis will offer the cardinals precious time to reflect, pray, and seek the counsel of trusted advisors — before stepping under Michelangelo's frescoes to choose a leader who must guide the Church through one of the most perilous and promising chapters in its long history.

May 7 Conclave set to navigate ideological currents within Catholicism, fractured and polarized world