Aug 2 :
In his final months as president, Joe Biden may be able to solidify his foreign policy legacy with the biggest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West in decades, while Vice President Kamala Harris may receive a boost to her presidential campaign. The United States believes that Russians are unfairly held as hostages, and the release of American citizens in exchange for their release came at a high price, according to Washington. This trade-off, experts warn, could lead to hostage-taking by American enemies. Republicans wasted no time attacking Biden on that worry.
In spite of the fact that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will most certainly define Biden's foreign policy legacy, the multi-nation prisoner exchange with Moscow on August 1 was a welcome foreign policy victory in the face of rising international tensions. The backdrop of the war in Ukraine, where the U.S. is supporting Kyiv against a Russian invasion, added another layer of difficulty to reaching a major deal. As a result, relations between Moscow and Washington have hit a low point not seen since the Cold War.
But the prisoner swap does a lot to address what Biden's staff have long said is a top foreign policy objective for him, particularly since he dropped his reelection campaign and backed Harris for the Democratic nominee. I am quite proud of it. An expert on the Middle East who served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, Dennis Ross, blamed "smart diplomacy" for its creation. "Getting back Americans seized and held unjustly is part of the responsibility any government has."
As a "feat of diplomacy," the prisoner swap—which included the release of ex-Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal writer Evan Gershkovich—was praised by Biden on Thursday. This could provide Harris with a favorable point to make when campaigning against Republican contender Donald Trump. But analysts agree that Biden still has a ways to go before his foreign policy record is fit for the annals, and that he must contend with Republican criticism of the arrangement.
Despite Trump's claims to the contrary, Biden has been largely credited with mending fences with NATO and important Asian allies like Japan and South Korea after his presidency from 2017 to 2021 damaged such relationships. This has caused some of America's allies to worry that Trump may be able to win the presidency again in November. A number of global challenges that emerged during Biden's presidency are also weighing on him.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet been settled. Concerns over a potential regional conflict have intensified as Israel's conflict with Hamas militants in Gaza continues. Even now, China is a danger to Taiwan's self-governance and American interests in the Indo-Pacific region. President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela asserted victory during an election on July 28 that the Biden administration had advocated for, even though exit polls indicated a resounding victory for the opposition. Even now, the disorganized U.S. pullout from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power continue to cast a shadow over Biden's first year in office record.
Many Republicans are attempting to cast Harris in the same negative light as Biden by capitalizing on the idea that the world has become a "world on fire" while he has been in office. The president has deftly navigated the world stage despite facing his fair share of problems, according to Biden's supporters, who argue that every U.S. leader has done the same.
Russian officials formally informed the Biden administration two weeks ago that their country was prepared to accept the arrangement, according to aides. This was occurring at the same time that Biden's political career was collapsing; the president had been fielding calls about the matter in the hours leading up to his announcement that he would not be running for reelection.
After over a year of tedious discussions, the prisoner swap eventually came together. A total of twenty-four inmates are exchanging hands, with eight going to Russia and four going back to the United States; this includes Germany and other European allies. An essential component of the agreement was Germany's assent to the primary demand of Russian President Vladimir Putin over the release of Vadim Krasikov, a man convicted for the assassination of a former Chechen fighter.
The conversation demonstrated the dramatic improvement in US-German ties under Biden's presidency compared to Trump's, according to Jeff Rathke, a former US ambassador and current president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University. The German government gave its approval, he added, "because the United States and Germany had a level of confidence, trust and mutual interest that allowed something difficult in the German justice system to occur and could cause criticism at home."
The arrangement seems to be a one-time transaction, according to officials in the Biden administration, and there is little indication that Putin is trying to mend relations with Washington. Similar to their reaction to the 2022 trade of American basketball star Brittney Griner for convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, Republicans did not waste any time condemning Biden of paying an exorbitant price.
Michael McCaul, chair of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, expressed his continued concern that exchanging innocent Americans for real Russian criminals detained in the United States and elsewhere sends a troubling message to Putin, which in turn encourages his regime to take hostages more frequently. According to Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration foreign policy adviser, the exchange may have been a notable short-term success, but it had "upended decades of practice that dictates that you don't negotiate with tyrants for the release or Americans." Bruen went on to say that Biden's administration had reached multiple similar deals.
In September of last year, the U.S. and Iran exchanged five prisoners following Griner's return. Included in this was the $6 billion that the United States transferred from Tehran's blocked cash to a humanitarian account in Qatar, a move that Republicans criticized as tantamount to paying "ransom." Also, in December, the United States freed a Maduro ally from prison in exchange for the release of ten Americans held by Venezuela. Administration officials have justified these compromises by saying they are painful but necessary after alternative options have been exhausted.
"While it is or would be great to have these individuals released, it underscores how hostage-taking has become a prominent and frequent - if not growing - element of Russian strategy toward the U.S. and the West," Ian Brzezinski, a former defense official from the United States.
Putin may have waited for Trump, who has demonstrated a greater willingness to accommodate Moscow's interests, to reenter the White House in January before arranging a large prisoner swap with Biden, but the rationale for this decision remains unknown. Instead of waiting for the next government and maybe having to start over, Putin may have decided it was preferable to do business with Biden.
Due to Germany's eagerness to join and the lack of assurance that such an offer would remain on the table under the next president, U.S. officials believe it was a one-off deal. In May, Trump said that Putin "will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!" He had previously asserted that he could easily get Gershkovich released if elected.
Washington still considers dozens of American citizens to be "wrongfully detained" or held hostage by other governments, non-state actors (such as the Palestinian militant group Hamas), or both. Some of these states are Russia, China, and Iran. Even though Biden has said that he will keep trying to get them released until he leaves office on January 20, the next president will probably take over that effort.
