July 8 :
As Western nations commemorate 75 years of NATO, one question looms over their heads: will the alliance be destroyed by Donald Trump, who could be president of the United States again in a matter of months?
Without directly stating it, this week's Washington meeting will seek to "Trump-proof" NATO by increasing the alliance's role, particularly in backing Ukraine, whose struggle against Russia has prompted doubt from the Republican nominee. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and US President Joe Biden have both hailed the 32-nation bloc as the most effective military alliance ever. They cite the bloc's role in opposing the Soviet Union and subsequently safeguarding emerging democracies in Europe following the Iron Curtain's fall as evidence.
The president, whose campaign slogan is "America First" and who has previously shown sympathy for Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, has taken a very different view of NATO, accusing its members of taking advantage of the United States' financially strapped military.
During his campaign, the real estate mogul from New York made statements that Biden criticized. He threatened to urge Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" if NATO members did not "pay (their) bills."
It is still debatable if Trump was being serious or threatening to demand more money from Europe.
The anti-immigration politician from Britain Nigel Farage asked Trump in a March interview whether the US will fulfill its NATO obligations if members "start to play fair," and Trump responded with a resounding "Yes. 100 percent."
However, Trump is using his complaints about NATO members' expenditure as an excuse to begin a US pullout, according to John Bolton, a staunch Republican who was Trump's national security adviser and later became a vocal opponent.
According to Bolton's memoir, Trump informed NATO members in 2018 that "we will walk out" and "not defend" nations who fail to fulfill their expenditure targets.
Trump may send a message to Moscow that he doesn't care about NATO's important Article Five, which states that an assault on one ally is an attack on all, even if he doesn't withdraw from NATO.
As president, Trump sparked controversy by labeling the population of small NATO member Montenegro as "very aggressive" and threatening "World War III."
Reorganizing NATO such that US allies field "the great majority of conventional forces required to deter Russia," with the US reducing forces in Europe and primarily offering its nuclear umbrella is one of the proposals put forth in Project 2025, an unofficial policy blueprint for a second Trump administration spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC.
U.S. forces in Europe have increased significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with some 100,000 troops now stationed there.
Trump advisor and former Defense Department official Elbridge Colby has said that America should stop worrying about Russia and pay more attention to China, which has a far bigger population and economy.
When NATO established its objective in 2014 in response to pressure from US president Barack Obama, just three of the 32 members spent at least 2% of GDP on defense. However, Stoltenberg recently brought attention to the fact that 23 of the allies do so now.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, changed its calculations and increased defense spending.
For a long time, France considered sending soldiers to Ukraine and advocated for a stronger European defensive posture. There is a widespread belief among Europeans that they could not continue NATO operations in Trump's absence.
According to one European ambassador, "deterrence and NATO would both come to an end" if the United States withdrew.
However, transatlantic security expert and Atlantic Council senior associate Rachel Rizzo warned that Trump did not damage NATO during his first time in office.
She said, "Stop freaking out about Trump." This is something she says to Europeans all the time. Hey, you stuck with it for four years, and you know what? According to her, it wasn't so horrible for Europe.
The measures that Trump implemented toward Europe did not harm NATO, notwithstanding the harsh words that irritated some. Mark Rutte, who is believed to have played a pivotal role in reassuring Trump during the 2018 summit in Brussels while serving as prime minister of the Netherlands, has been selected by NATO to succeed Stoltenberg. It has been pointed out that Trump is gullible and easily flatterized. According to another European ambassador, Trump will be pleased if you kiss his behind enough.
