Washington, Jan 21
Gas prices are dropping across the US, groceries have become cheaper and a new survey shows consumers are noticing.
Consumer sentiment registered a massive jump to 78.8 in January in a study by the University of Michigan; it’s the highest since July 2021.
Will the good cheer last and will that be the predominating feeling when voters head for polls later in the year? Or will they carry lingering after-effects of the record breaking inflation that kicked in 2022 and cast a shadow on President Joe Biden’s re-election chances.
The surge in consumer sentiment will take time to reflect in polls, which show Biden in the dismal position of being the lowest for any American president at any point in their presidency. And then there are the polls.
His approval rating stood at 39 per cent in a poll conducted by Gallup in December 2023, his third year in office.
Trump was at 45 per centin the December of his third year in office, Barack Obama was at 43, George W. Bush at 58, Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush were at 51, Ronald Reagan 54, Jimmy Carter 52, Richard Nixon 50 and Dwight Eisenhower was at the highest at 75.
And then, there is the matter of his age.
At 81, Biden is the oldest American President already and if re-elected he will be the oldest incumbent of the White House, which is not very reassuring for many voters.
Although, his rival in the race, who is most likely to be former President Donald Trump unless he is disqualified on account of his legal cases, has no clear age advantage at 77, although he likes to project himself as mentally more agile.
Biden’s team has been most frustrated about inflation, which has overshadowed every achievement of the administration -- a massive investment in infrastructure that Trump had repeatedly promised when in office but failed to deliver, for one; major initiatives on fighting climate change. But all everyone wanted to talk about, and rightly, were the steep rise in prices all around, specially at the gas pump.
An exultant White House called the University of Michigan survey “the latest sign that President Biden’s economic plan is delivering results that more and more Americans are feeling, preliminaryâ€.
Consumer sentiment soared by 13 per cent in January, jumping to its highest level in more than two years. Overall, it has increased by 29 per cent in the past two months, which, the White House said, is “the biggest two-month jump in more than 30 yearsâ€.
The Biden administration went on to point out that at the same time inflation expectations continued to fall in January, dropping to their lowest levels since 2020.
And all of this comes at a moment, they added, when the economy has added 14.3 million new jobs, the unemployment rate has remained below 4 per cent for the longest stretch in 50 years, inflation has fallen nearly two-thirds from its peak, and wages and wealth are above their pre-pandemic levels.
The Biden team will continue to worry, however, why these numbers are not moving the president’s popularity upwards.
The President and First Lady Jill Biden have been frustrated about his persistently low numbers for months. And after the ritualistic pardoning of turkeys at a White House event in November, he pressed his aides on reasons, according to a report in The Washington Post.
Biden’s popularity, or the lack of it, will have a direct bearing not only on his re-election chances but also on Democrats down the ballot, seeking to keep their seats in the US congress and in the races for governor and state legislatures.
In Washington D.C., the Democrats would like to wrest the House of Representatives from the Republicans and retain control of the Senate.
That’s crucial to enabling Biden to pursue his goal if re-elected and, if not, stymie Trump or whichever Republican makes it.
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