Washington, Jan 16
Former President Donald Trump starts with the early bird advantage against his rivals Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley as the Iowa caucus kicks in on Monday with voters heading for the polling booths with all Gallup polls showing Trump with the highest points.
The weather with icy winds and heavy snowfall with temperatures plummeting to -22 degrees Celsius could test the resolve of the voters to come out of the comfort of their homes to the polling booths.
Trump is expected to win the nation's first nominating contest. But a number of other storylines will be crucial to understanding what happens next, as the race moves to New Hampshire and beyond, media reports said.
The 2024 presidential election kicked off in right earnest, as Republicans in Iowa headed to the polls – trudging through snow and record-setting frigid temperatures – to pick their preferred GOP nominee.
Trump is widely expected to walk away as the nominee, for a 3rd time, as the final Des Moines Register (publication of Iowa) poll showed him leading the field by a 28 percentage-point margin – a number of other storylines will be just as crucial to understanding whether any of his challengers might be poised to break through the former president’s otherwise iron-clad grip on the nomination.
The question being asked frequently is can DeSantis or Haley convert enough of former New Jersey governor Christ Christie's supporters to eat away Trump's voters? Christie has dropped out of the presidential race.
"Everyone assumes that Trump is going to have a blowout here, and I'm not sure that's going to be the case," says Tim Hagle, political science professor at the University of Iowa.
Yet over the weekend, a widely anticipated poll from the Des Moines Register and NBC News showed Trump with a commanding leading – garnering support from 48 per cent of likely Republican caucusgoers and leading in every demographic group – with Haley surpassing DeSantis for the first time and by a notable margin, nabbing support from 20 per cent of the field compared to 16 per cent for DeSantis.
Trump holds the advantage because the new polls reflect the understanding that the former President often benefits from the most devotees and adoring Iowans.
The advantage could go to Trump in that case, with the new poll reflecting the long-held understanding that the former President often benefits from the most devoted and adoring base.
Some 82 per cent of Trump's supporters have made up their minds, compared to 18 per cent who said they could still be persuaded to support someone else. They also voiced the most enthusiasm about his candidacy, with half of them saying they were "extremely enthusiastic" about him and 39 per cent saying they were "very enthusiastic".
Only 11 per cent said they were "mildly enthusiastic", and the number of those who said they were "not that enthusiastic" did not even register.
"It seems unlikely – not impossible, but unlikely – for DeSantis to win in Iowa," Hagle says.
"But if he could cut that gap (between Trump and him) in half, that would be good. It would show some momentum, even if he's still 15 points down. The problem there is that he's not doing as well in New Hampshire. Of course, you don't have to do well in both early states to do well overall. But the problem for DeSantis is that Haley's home turf is South Carolina and he’s polling behind both her and Trump," he adds.
