New Delhi, May 15
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has an advantage in the seventh phase of the Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday as the caste and community arithmetic of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) may not work in 9 out of 13 seats in the final round.
The BJP and ally had swept all these 13 eastern Uttar Pradesh seats in 2014. This year also, all eyes are on Varanasi from where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking re-election.
The spotlight is also on Gorakhpur, a seat BJP is keen to wrest from the Samajwadi Party (SP) after the setback in bypoll when Hindutva mascot Yogi Adityanath's stronghold fell to MGB, which made its experimental debut as an anti-BJP front in Uttar Pradesh.
Stakes are also high for the Congress as former Minister in Manmohan Singh's government R.P.N. Singh is giving a strong fight in Kushi Nagar on the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border and journalist-turned-politician Supriya Shrinate is contesting from Maharajganj.
If votes polled by MGB constituents SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2014 are taken into account, the combined vote share of its candidates exceeds that of the winning BJP contestant in only four of these 13 seats.
The seats where caste and community equation favours MGB are Ghosi, Balia, Ghazipur and Chandauli. In the rest of the seats, the MGB falls short of the BJP by substantial margins. But there are some riders as well.
The combined vote share of the SP and BSP in Gorakhpur in 2014, when Yogi Adityanath won the seat by polling 5,39,127 votes, was much less than that of the BJP.
Adityanath had defeated Rajmati Nishad of SP, who got 2,26,344 votes and BSP's Ram Bhual Nishad (1,76,412).
Yet the BJP lost the bypolls to Samajwadi Party's Praveen Nishad and the Yogi bastion was breached for the first time.
Praveen Nishad, however, is now with the BJP contesting from the Sant Kabir Nagar seat while Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan is carrying the BJP flag in Gorakhpur.
Also on test in this round is BJP's ally and Union Minister Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal from Mirzapur. She is up against Lalitesh Tripathi of the UPA and MGB candidate Rajendra S. Vind.
Another Union Minister and senior BJP leader Manoj Sinha, who almost missed the bus to become Chief Minister, is seeking re-election from Ghazipur while state party chief Mahendra Nath Pandey is contesting from Chandauli.
The BJP is confident that the momentum is with Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will unsettle all the caste and community equations.
Maharajganj (2014)
Winner: Pankaj -- BJP -- 4,71,542
Akhilesh -- SP -- 2,13,974
Kashi Nath Shukla -- BSP -- 2,31,084
SP+BSP= 4,45,058
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Pankaj Choudhary -- BJP
Supriya Shrinate -- UPA
Akhilesh Singh -- MGB
Tanushree Tripathi -- PDA
Gorakhpur (2014)
Winner: Adityanath -- BJP -- 5,39,127
Rajmati Nishad -- SP -- 2,26,344
Ram Bhual Nishad -- BSP -- 1,76,412
SP+BSP= 1,76,412
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ravi Kishan -- BJP
Madhusudan Tripathi -- UPA
Rambhual Nishad -- MGB
Kushi Nagar (2014)
Winner: Rajesh Pandey aka 'Guddu' -- BJP -- 3,70,051
Kunwar Ratanjit Pratap Narain Singh -- INC -- 2,84,511
Radhe Shyam Singh -- SP -- 1,11,256
Dr. Sangam Mishra -- BSP -- 1,32,881
SP+BSP= 2,44,137
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Vijay Dubey -- BJP
R.P.N Singh -- UPA
Nathuni Prasad Kushwaha -- MGB
Deoria (2014)
Winner: Kalraj Mishra -- BJP -- 4,96,500
Niyaz Ahmad -- BSP -- 2,31,114
Baleshwar Yadav -- SP -- 1,50,852
SP+BSP= 3,81,966
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ramapati Ram Tripathi -- BJP
Niaz Ahmed -- UPA
Vinod Kumar Jaiswal -- MGB
Bansgaon (2014)
Winner: Kamlesh Paswan -- BJP -- 4,17,959
Gorakh Prasad Paswan -- SP -- 1,33,675
Sadal Prasad -- BSP -- 2,28,443
SP+BSP= 3,62,118
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Kamlesh Paswan -- BJP
Kush Saurabh -- UPA
Sadal Prasad -- MGB
Surendra Prasad Bharti -- PDA
Ghosi (2014)
Winner: Hari Narayan Rajbhar -- BJP -- 3,79,797
Dara Singh Chauhan -- BSP -- 2,33,782
Rajeev Kr. Rai -- SP -- 1,65,887
SP+BSP= 3,99,669
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Hari Narayan Rajbhar -- BJP
Bal Krishna Chauhan -- UPA
Atul Rai -- MGB
Salempur (2014)
Winner: Ravindra Kushwaha -- BJP -- 3,92,213
Ravi Shankar Singh 'Pappu' -- BSP-- 1,59,871
Haribansh Sahai Kushwaha -- 1,59,788
SP+BSP= 3,19,559
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ravindra Kushwaha -- BJP
Rajesh Mishra -- UPA
B.S. Kushwaha -- MGB
Dr. Ajimullah Ansari -- PDA
Balia (2014)
Winner: Bharat Singh -- BJP -- 3,59,758
Virendra Kumar Pathak -- BSP -- 1,41,684
Neeraj Shekhar -- SP -- 2,20,324
SP+BSP= 3,62,008
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Virendra Singh Mast -- BJP
Sanatan Pandey -- MGB
Ghazipur (2014)
Winner: Manoj Sinha -- BJP -- 3,06,929
Kailash Nath Singh Yadav -- BSP -- 2,41,845
Smt Shivkanya Kushwaha -- SP -- 2,74,477
SP+BSP= 5,16,322
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Manoj Sinha -- BJP
Ajit Pratap Kushwaha -- UPA
Afzal Ansari --MGB
Chaundauli (2014)
Winner: Dr Mahendra Nath Pandey -- BJP -- 4,14,135
Anil Kumar Maurya -- BSP -- 2,57,379
Ramkishun -- SP -- 2,04,145
SP+BSP= 4,61,524
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Mahendra Nath Pandy -- BJP
Shiv Kanya Kushwaha -- UPA
Sanjay Chauhan -- MGB
Varanasi (2014)
Winner: Narenda Modi -- BJP -- 5,81,022
Arvind Kejriwal -- AAP -- 2,09,238
Ajay Rai -- Congress -- 75,614
Kailash Chaurasiya -- SP -- 45,291
Vijay Prakash Jaiswal -- BSP -- 60,579
SP+BSP= 1,05,870
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Narendra Modi -- BJP
Ajay Rai -- UPA
Shalini Yadav -- MGB
Mirzapur (2014)
Winner: Anupriya Singh Patel -- Apna Dal -- 4,36,536
Samudra Bind -- BSP -- 2,17,457
Surendra Singh Patel -- SP -- 1,08,859
Lalitesh Pati Tripathi -- Congress -- 1,52,666
SP+BSP= 3,26,316
Adv: NDA
Contestants in 2019
Anupriya Patel -- NDA
Lalitesh Tripathi -- UPA
Rajendra S. Vind -- MGB
Robertsganj (2014)
Winner: Chhotelal -- BJP -- 3,78,211
Pakaudi Lal Kol -- SP -- 1,35,966
Sharada Prasad -- BSP -- 1,87,725
SP+BSP= 3,23,691
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Pakaudi Lal -- BJP
Bhagwati Prasad Choudhary -- UPA
Bhai Lal Kaul -- MGB
Triveni Prasad Kharwar -- PDA
The BJP and ally had swept all these 13 eastern Uttar Pradesh seats in 2014. This year also, all eyes are on Varanasi from where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking re-election.
The spotlight is also on Gorakhpur, a seat BJP is keen to wrest from the Samajwadi Party (SP) after the setback in bypoll when Hindutva mascot Yogi Adityanath's stronghold fell to MGB, which made its experimental debut as an anti-BJP front in Uttar Pradesh.
Stakes are also high for the Congress as former Minister in Manmohan Singh's government R.P.N. Singh is giving a strong fight in Kushi Nagar on the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border and journalist-turned-politician Supriya Shrinate is contesting from Maharajganj.
If votes polled by MGB constituents SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2014 are taken into account, the combined vote share of its candidates exceeds that of the winning BJP contestant in only four of these 13 seats.
The seats where caste and community equation favours MGB are Ghosi, Balia, Ghazipur and Chandauli. In the rest of the seats, the MGB falls short of the BJP by substantial margins. But there are some riders as well.
The combined vote share of the SP and BSP in Gorakhpur in 2014, when Yogi Adityanath won the seat by polling 5,39,127 votes, was much less than that of the BJP.
Adityanath had defeated Rajmati Nishad of SP, who got 2,26,344 votes and BSP's Ram Bhual Nishad (1,76,412).
Yet the BJP lost the bypolls to Samajwadi Party's Praveen Nishad and the Yogi bastion was breached for the first time.
Praveen Nishad, however, is now with the BJP contesting from the Sant Kabir Nagar seat while Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan is carrying the BJP flag in Gorakhpur.
Also on test in this round is BJP's ally and Union Minister Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal from Mirzapur. She is up against Lalitesh Tripathi of the UPA and MGB candidate Rajendra S. Vind.
Another Union Minister and senior BJP leader Manoj Sinha, who almost missed the bus to become Chief Minister, is seeking re-election from Ghazipur while state party chief Mahendra Nath Pandey is contesting from Chandauli.
The BJP is confident that the momentum is with Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will unsettle all the caste and community equations.
Maharajganj (2014)
Winner: Pankaj -- BJP -- 4,71,542
Akhilesh -- SP -- 2,13,974
Kashi Nath Shukla -- BSP -- 2,31,084
SP+BSP= 4,45,058
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Pankaj Choudhary -- BJP
Supriya Shrinate -- UPA
Akhilesh Singh -- MGB
Tanushree Tripathi -- PDA
Gorakhpur (2014)
Winner: Adityanath -- BJP -- 5,39,127
Rajmati Nishad -- SP -- 2,26,344
Ram Bhual Nishad -- BSP -- 1,76,412
SP+BSP= 1,76,412
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ravi Kishan -- BJP
Madhusudan Tripathi -- UPA
Rambhual Nishad -- MGB
Kushi Nagar (2014)
Winner: Rajesh Pandey aka 'Guddu' -- BJP -- 3,70,051
Kunwar Ratanjit Pratap Narain Singh -- INC -- 2,84,511
Radhe Shyam Singh -- SP -- 1,11,256
Dr. Sangam Mishra -- BSP -- 1,32,881
SP+BSP= 2,44,137
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Vijay Dubey -- BJP
R.P.N Singh -- UPA
Nathuni Prasad Kushwaha -- MGB
Deoria (2014)
Winner: Kalraj Mishra -- BJP -- 4,96,500
Niyaz Ahmad -- BSP -- 2,31,114
Baleshwar Yadav -- SP -- 1,50,852
SP+BSP= 3,81,966
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ramapati Ram Tripathi -- BJP
Niaz Ahmed -- UPA
Vinod Kumar Jaiswal -- MGB
Bansgaon (2014)
Winner: Kamlesh Paswan -- BJP -- 4,17,959
Gorakh Prasad Paswan -- SP -- 1,33,675
Sadal Prasad -- BSP -- 2,28,443
SP+BSP= 3,62,118
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Kamlesh Paswan -- BJP
Kush Saurabh -- UPA
Sadal Prasad -- MGB
Surendra Prasad Bharti -- PDA
Ghosi (2014)
Winner: Hari Narayan Rajbhar -- BJP -- 3,79,797
Dara Singh Chauhan -- BSP -- 2,33,782
Rajeev Kr. Rai -- SP -- 1,65,887
SP+BSP= 3,99,669
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Hari Narayan Rajbhar -- BJP
Bal Krishna Chauhan -- UPA
Atul Rai -- MGB
Salempur (2014)
Winner: Ravindra Kushwaha -- BJP -- 3,92,213
Ravi Shankar Singh 'Pappu' -- BSP-- 1,59,871
Haribansh Sahai Kushwaha -- 1,59,788
SP+BSP= 3,19,559
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Ravindra Kushwaha -- BJP
Rajesh Mishra -- UPA
B.S. Kushwaha -- MGB
Dr. Ajimullah Ansari -- PDA
Balia (2014)
Winner: Bharat Singh -- BJP -- 3,59,758
Virendra Kumar Pathak -- BSP -- 1,41,684
Neeraj Shekhar -- SP -- 2,20,324
SP+BSP= 3,62,008
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Virendra Singh Mast -- BJP
Sanatan Pandey -- MGB
Ghazipur (2014)
Winner: Manoj Sinha -- BJP -- 3,06,929
Kailash Nath Singh Yadav -- BSP -- 2,41,845
Smt Shivkanya Kushwaha -- SP -- 2,74,477
SP+BSP= 5,16,322
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Manoj Sinha -- BJP
Ajit Pratap Kushwaha -- UPA
Afzal Ansari --MGB
Chaundauli (2014)
Winner: Dr Mahendra Nath Pandey -- BJP -- 4,14,135
Anil Kumar Maurya -- BSP -- 2,57,379
Ramkishun -- SP -- 2,04,145
SP+BSP= 4,61,524
Adv: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Mahendra Nath Pandy -- BJP
Shiv Kanya Kushwaha -- UPA
Sanjay Chauhan -- MGB
Varanasi (2014)
Winner: Narenda Modi -- BJP -- 5,81,022
Arvind Kejriwal -- AAP -- 2,09,238
Ajay Rai -- Congress -- 75,614
Kailash Chaurasiya -- SP -- 45,291
Vijay Prakash Jaiswal -- BSP -- 60,579
SP+BSP= 1,05,870
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Narendra Modi -- BJP
Ajay Rai -- UPA
Shalini Yadav -- MGB
Mirzapur (2014)
Winner: Anupriya Singh Patel -- Apna Dal -- 4,36,536
Samudra Bind -- BSP -- 2,17,457
Surendra Singh Patel -- SP -- 1,08,859
Lalitesh Pati Tripathi -- Congress -- 1,52,666
SP+BSP= 3,26,316
Adv: NDA
Contestants in 2019
Anupriya Patel -- NDA
Lalitesh Tripathi -- UPA
Rajendra S. Vind -- MGB
Robertsganj (2014)
Winner: Chhotelal -- BJP -- 3,78,211
Pakaudi Lal Kol -- SP -- 1,35,966
Sharada Prasad -- BSP -- 1,87,725
SP+BSP= 3,23,691
Adv: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Pakaudi Lal -- BJP
Bhagwati Prasad Choudhary -- UPA
Bhai Lal Kaul -- MGB
Triveni Prasad Kharwar -- PDA