Hapur (Uttar Pradesh), April 24
The Modi magic may be waning, but it will still bring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. If the predictions of the Hapur "satta bazaar" is anything to go by, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the next government at the Centre.

However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to be in weaker position compared to 2014, given that the satta bazaar is giving fewer seats to the BJP this time.

"We are expecting the BJP to win 240 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The tally may touch 245, but not more than that," said an operator in the Hapur satta market.

Multiple operators here said the BJP and its alliance partners would together get majority comfortably.

A weaker position for Modi means the saffron party's Hindu agenda is taking a backseat as one of BJP's key allies, the Janata Dal-United, is unlikely to accept it.

It will also impact the major policy decisions of the government, meaning it would be almost impossible to take decisions such as demonetisation.

"Given Modi's personality, it is difficult to even visualise how he would act in that situation. Among the BJP allies, the most powerful are the Shiv Sena and the JD-U and they will definitely make his life difficult," said a political analyst, wishing not to be named.

The BJP is likely to lose almost half of its seats in Uttar Pradesh. The bookies in Hapur expect 41 seats for the BJP. This means the party will lose huge support base in a state considered extremely important for the government at the Centre.

"In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP will win 41 to 45 seats," said a bookie in the city's once-famous Mandi Patia area.

Riding on a strong Modi wave, the BJP had won 282 seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections, giving a landslide victory to the NDA.

The projections by the bookies are based on the analysis of the 300 seats for which polling has already been completed.

Hapur bookies see Modi returning, but with fewer seats